Tax Credit Effects on the Real Estate Market

Last year's tax credit encouraged many buyers that were "sitting on the fence" to go ahead and purchase a new home. Here are the market stats for the month of October as it compares to this time last year.




REIN reports
Effects of ’09 Tax Credit Starting to Show

(Virginia Beach, Virginia – November 8, 2010)

The effects from the residential sales surge experienced in the third and fourth quarters of 2009 are now starting to be more prominent in 2010 sales totals comparisons. Traditionally, the third and fourth quarters are slower when compared to the second quarter of the year. But, in 2009 the third quarter had the highest sales total and the fourth quarter was almost equal to the second. This shift in buyers’ habits was due in large part to the federal tax credit. It caused many people who were potential buyers in the first and second quarters of 2010 to buy in the third and fourth quarters of 2009 prior to the original tax credit expiration of November 30. This date set a line in the sand for home buyers and the following extension allowed even more buyers to move their own purchase timelines to earlier dates thus “pulling forward” home sales activity. Many people across the country bought homes sooner than planned specifically for the tax credit and skewed many settled sales totals prior to the credit’s expiration.
The number of active homes for sale in the region last month remained high and increased by 8.95% when compared to October 2009. The recent levels of homes for sale have been the highest recorded for each month since February 2010. The region has maintained a level above 15,000 available listings for seven straight months, also the most on record. However, the median listing price of homes on the market in October 2010 declined by 9% when compared to October 2009. This drop is in line with the settling of home prices in Hampton Roads and is a potential sign of housing stability.
The number of under contract residential sales fell year-over-year by 28% in October. This statistic, often referred to as a leading market indicator, does not provide a very positive outlook for the near future. Most of the recent downturn in under contract may be attributed to the expiration of the federal tax credit, but other factors are also influencing the rapid drop in transactions including availability of credit and consumer expectations.
Residential settled sales plunged 32.4% in October when compared to the same time last year. The plummet was the largest year-over-year drop since January 2009, -35%. Each of the seven major cities in the area experienced sales declines ranging from a low of -21% in Norfolk to the high of -46% in Newport News. The median sales price for October 2010 was down 1.2% when compared to October 2009. The median price for homes sold seems to have bottomed for the region with its continued small differences as recorded each month. Some areas, including Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and James City County, are starting to experience price appreciation with each area up 1% year-over-year.
The months’ supply of inventory held at ten months, but the absorption rate, the average number of homes sold over the past twelve months, continued to decline and is now at 1,480 homes per month.
The percentage of distressed listings, those that are bank owned or short sales, expanded to account for 22% of the active homes for sale and they comprised 31.7% of the settled sales total. October was, by far, the most prevalent month for distressed sales activity in our region since the housing bubble burst. Current market conditions and the overall economy do not show signs of a dramatic decrease in distressed listings. If these trends, both percent of active and sold listings, continue upward home prices within the region may decline as a result of the downward pressure these distressed homes have on local markets.